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Showing posts with label Robots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Robots. Show all posts

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Two Cowboys: Controlling Machines and Automating Tasks at Motion Design in Auckland, New Zealand

Tractor Shed Wisdom

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How do you create an opportunity for meaningful work? By applying technology to routine and mindless tasks. It frees up people to do something else. Something better. What we choose to do with this opportunity, and if it has more meaning, remains ultimately up to us.


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That was the plan at least a century and a half ago at the dawn of industrialisation. We've advanced substantially since then. We are now in a new era where machines are not only executing routine and mindless tasks, but technology is also becoming implicated in the "meaning of work". Our robots are becoming extensions of ourselves.

According to Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, "We’re entering unknown territory in the quest to reduce labour costs. The AI (Artificial Intelligence) revolution is doing to white-collar jobs what industrialisation and robotics did to blue-collar jobs." They are making these jobs obsolete. The very nature of work is being challenged. It is forcing us to take another look at the relationship between people, employment, technology and society.

Is technology giving us more precious hours back in our day? Is it giving us a chance for more meaningful work? This is a contentious issue that will not be settled soon. What we do know is that technology is getting more efficient at diverting mindless and meaningless tasks away from people. We now have a real opportunity to do something else. We think that we should grab this opportunity with both hands to create more meaning and purpose in our lives and in our communities. 

This is where Motion Design comes in. They are the people that take a process that a human would have done repetitively, and then automate it. They are not admitting that AI is part of it, yet. But it is bound to come sooner than later that their robots also become "self-aware". They are doing their work to reduce cost, free up human capital and improving quality and task consistency for their clients. Their customers are all over the world.

Observations


From a "tractor shed" in rural New Zealand, Motion Design managed to carve out a niche in robotics and automation. They fabricate, program, experiment, invent, innovate and build machines and systems that are used in laboratories and other industries.

Why is a small company in New Zealand succeeding in what some consider a complex, specialised, yet growing industry? Because they are fast and flexible with ingenuity on-tap. Kiwis are open-minded people. They have to be. Because of the country's geographic isolation, its people tend to be more enterprising and self-reliant. They are more inclined to trying new things and learning from their mistakes. This is innovation at its best, and fertile ground for inventing.

Kiwi businesses are recognised on the world stage for their ability to come up with novel solutions to problems and delivering on it.

Frank Calis, one of the founders of the business admits that he doesn't get to play that much anymore with the toys of the business. He is now more busy building a company where others get to play and make something. I think he is modest, as most Kiwis are. Employing a team of brilliant people to change an industry, and contribute to a better world is still building something. It takes guts to make it run.

Thanks to Motion Design, someone, somewhere in the world has been relieved of a routine and repetitive task. Hopefully, they are making the most of the opportunity by doing something else now, with more meaning.

Hendrik van Wyk
Automatic Cowboy

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Sunday, February 28, 2016

Finding Purpose, Meaning and Motivation in Production

Did you just come from another useless and time-wasting meeting?

Are you working on a document, email or report that you know is not going to make one bit of difference to anyone? Are you packing, scooping, welding, or assembling widgets over and over, everyday, while the mind numbing hours are ticking away one by one, robbing you of the single most important irreplaceable and valuable commodity of your life - your time?

You should be worried. This is not how life is supposed to be.

People are finding more and more that their work is not as inspiring or contributing as they thought it once was. For the sake of a pay cheque, they are busy being busy. Their work is without purpose, meaning, inspiration, and with no fulfilment. They do "bullshit jobs". These are people touched by the industrialization's disease of the last two centuries - cogs in machines. As people moved away from farming fields and workshops into factories and assembly lines, they lost their souls in the process. They lost meaning in work. They gave up being Producers. Instead, they became tools. Some, more educated than others, but tools nevertheless.

It doesn't have to be like this anymore. The good news is there is a solution. Now, robots can do the mind numbing work invented by the industrial age. There is most likely a machine that can do what labour does today. If there isn't one, it is bound to be invented soon by some maker somewhere.

If you are labour, this spells doom. Or, it will give you the opportunity to become a Producer again. Alternatively, you can be someone that supports Producers in creating our new world, or sign up for welfare. Stay with me as I explain.

There are soon going to be just two types of people in our world:

  • The people who make things. We can call them the Producers. These people are personally vested in the things they create; and 
  • Everyone else that benefits from what this first group does. We call them the supporters or consumers. Yes, the people on welfare are also in this group.
In this Blog post I hope to help you recognize who the Producers are in today's society. I make the case that we owe Producers a lot of support and our collective gratitude. Regardless of Producers being some of the lowest earners in society, these makers are motivated, have purpose, and enjoy their work.

By getting to know what drives Producers, you can join them and escape being replaced by a machine, while finding purpose and meaning in what you do. Or, you can support Producers. Because, without them we won't have the world we live in today. If you don't produce, or support a Producer, you better not get in their way. We need Producers now, more than ever before. For the sake of our sanity and our future. It is what evolution made us to do and who we are destined to be.

Why Producers Care 

Producers care, and they care about others. When one expends a lot of energy and time on creating something that matters to you, then you are more likely to care about, and for it. The person is vested in his or her creation. This is exactly what Producers do. The things they make are important to them, and the people that derive value from what they produce, matters to them.

Producers have reasons to take care of their environment, people that support them, communities, and their own lives. If they don't, they have nothing to work with, and no one for whom they can produce. Producers know it is hard to create, that is why they care about the way they are doing it. In every interview we do with makers they confirm that what they make is an extension of themselves. A maker infuses a little part of their identity, passion and motivation into every creation. It is part of them. It is who they are. By taking care of their creations and the people that benefit from it, they take care of themselves.

The rest of the people should support them to do it, so that they can in return benefit from what Producers do.

People that make things without being vested in their creation, are merely tools. I know you won't like to hear this, but it is true. Hired labour is simply just in a job, the same way a robot or a tool is there for a measured and defined output. No less and no more. Businesses are filled with hired labour that will do just enough to justify their contribution relative to their paycheque and status. No amount of moral high-ground can convince anyone to go above and beyond for a company or job in which they are not personally vested, and from which they don't personally benefit. The result is that hired labour can easily be replaced by the next person, automated and/or robotized. There is always the next tool that will take the place of the current. If you are labour today, then step out of this role.

If you are not lucky enough to be a Producer, and working with people that are equally vested in an outcome to make something as Producer, and in collaboration with another Producers, then prepare to be replaced by a machine that can do it cheaper, better, and faster (and not all machines are made from metal).

Labour may benefit from a paycheque, but without meaning and purpose. Go ask the people that have lost their jobs over the last couple of decades to outsourcing and mechanization. Manufacturing jobs are disappearing, and the middle class is under threat (Why blue collar work is disappearing). The jobs must disappear for the sake of progress. Jobs/tools change in line with the need for production. What should not disappear is people's motivation to produce or make something they care about, and which is valuable to someone.

The time has come to let the jobs go to the robots. The rest of us now either make something - become a Producer, or support someone that does. If you do, you will have purpose, find motivation and become more fulfilled in what you do.

The Producers

Producers make the materials, tools and products we consume everyday.

Materials are things like steel, wool, wheat, flower, wood, coal, oil, and more. Ingredients go into making tools and/or value added products for consumption. Materials are the ingredients for for other products. Materials are things that are destroyed or transformed during the act of making something else.

Tools are used to produce materials or the end products we consume. Tools include machines, vehicles, hammers, stoves, computers, phones, processes, information, labour and more. A tool is not destroyed during the process of creation. It serves an important role to transform materials into useful products for consumption. With tools and materials Producers make the things we consume. The better the tools, the more productive the production. The better the materials, the better the quality of the product.

The products we consume, made out of materials with (or without tools) include our food, clothes, and shelter. Products are consumed. They are used up and destroyed in the process. There comes a time when they no longer exist for the purpose they were designed and either become materials for the next product, like an old recycled table's wood. Food is an example of a product that is destroyed when it is consumed.

The Producer's knowledge, skill, commitment and drive binds it all together. It is the Producer that knows how to source the right materials, apply the perfectly calibrated tool to craft an exquisite wine, bread, garment or build a majestic house, and how to deploy labour in a productive process to do it all.

It is also the maker that is driven enough by their conviction to take the risk in making a difference for themselves, and offer value to those around them. Producers are inherent risk takers. Without taking risks, they will never know what can be done. Boundaries will not be tested. Innovation will not take place. They are also achievers driven by a need for recognition.

Producers work for profit, because profit allows them to produce, innovate and create. Without profit there is no incentive or further means to evolve and innovate. True Producers is after profit not for consumption sake. Yes, the nice car, house or holiday is always welcome, but ultimately money is just a tool at the Producer's disposal to facilitate the next creation, and the next innovation.

The Supporters

The best support you can provide any Producer is to use and enjoy what they make. By consuming their products we provide returns and profit, and give the Producer incentives to make more.

The second way to support Producers is to provide services to help them in their production efforts. The bankers, consultants, accountants, teachers, managers, politicians, lawyers, medical professionals, retailers and public services all fall within this later group. All these people support the efforts of makers, or exists thanks to the efforts of Producers.

For example, financial services exists to help producers finance their creative production efforts, and provide the means for trading and payment. Granted, they don't do this only for Producers, but considering everyone else relies on the success of producers it makes Producers the initiators and prime movers for the service.

Managers, administrators and consultants exist to help Producers do more and do it more efficiently. With the service of managers and administrators a maker's production can be scaled.

Most, if not all of the service industries can only exist because of the value that originates from Producers, and in support of makers. We can have healthcare because Producers invented and produce medicines, and medical instruments. We have hospitals because Producers build them. We have retailers to distribute products. Lawyers to help keep it fair and teachers to educate future Producers.

Then we have our favourite beneficiary: Public services. If it was not for the production of Producers then there were no sustainable way to finance public services. The levy of taxes on Producers make it possible. The majority of earnings through the production, trade and consumption of materials, tools and products goes towards employment and taxes. The producer is taxed on profits, and their employees are taxed on employment. No Producer, no production. No production, no profit. No profit, no work. No work, no employment. No employment, no personal taxes. And, without taxes how will the Government be able to justify what they do?

One should never forget that the Government inherently produces nothing and public services can only be justified with the understanding that it is thanks to Producers' contribution that it is all financed. The day Government lose this very important perspective, or believe they can get around this Producer production dependency through financing their populist efforts through credit and borrowing, is the day our society gets on a slippery slope we are unlikely to recover from, easily.

Unfortunately, it looks like we are there already, hence our mission here at Two Cowboys and A Camera, to promote Producers and inspire people to make something.

What Motivates a Producer

There are a few simple motivators that inspire people in general. Coincidentally, these very same things are part of the values you will find with every maker. Producers discovered these, and it forms the foundation of their being. This is why they live with purpose, drive and fulfilment. You can too.
  • Seeing the Fruits of One's Efforts Makes it Worthwhile: Producers see the fruits of their labour when they make something. It has value for themselves, but also for their consumers. When the amount of benefit from making something no longer justifies the effort or amount of recognition, the Producer moves on and stops making. This happens when their creation is not in consumer demand, or when the fruits (profits) of their labour falls short, or is confiscated through taxes, levies and compliance cost. Then Producers have a disincentive to produce. Then, people stop making. There simply is no point to make something that will be stolen by someone that profess to have the best interest at heart for society at large (sounds familiar?). The less appreciated any person feels their work is, the more money they want to do it, or the less likely they are to do it at all. Under these circumstances Producers abandon production and everyone else is worse off for it. Then, Services has no one to support, the labourers have no jobs, products disappear and food gets scarce. 
  • The Harder a Project is, the Prouder We Feel: Producers are achievers. Making something is not easy, but it is this perseverance that allowed human evolution to advance to where it is today. Hard challenges drives the most committed of Producers, and the highest achievers among us. The heavy lifting of advancing our civilization is done by the most committed for the sake of seeing the fruits of their efforts. We call them the Producers, makers and creators.
  • Knowing Their Work Helps Others: Producers make things for their own benefit and enjoyment. They are equally motivated to see others appreciate and benefit from what they do. Society is about cooperation, and the best incentive for a Producer is to see others use their products, or use their tools to co-create and make things even better.
  • Positive Reinforcement: There is no better incentive for Producers than to see people support their endeavours. By consuming their products and encouraging them to produce more Producers achieve and excel. The profits a Producer derives from the things they make positively reinforce them to do even more, search for even better ways to do it, and ultimately make it better for everybody involved.
When the people that benefits from producers take things for granted, they jeopardize the producer's drive and motivation. Because makers create the world, we put their commitment in jeopardy. When there is no longer a real incentive for people to make things, we all lose. We lose the drivers in our society, but we also lose a very important human quality - the motivation and ability to create.

Summary

Producers have the answer to a two century long broken employment paradigm. Jobs and labour have always been tools of Producers with all the tensions and demotivating characteristics that came with removing people's purpose, motivation and inspiration from their work. Making people cogs in a factory machine was never going to work out well for anybody (Producers included).

These tools (labour and jobs) are now under more threat than ever from machines that can do things cheaper, faster and better. This is a good thing, even with the discomfort that comes with it. By people becoming Producers, we have a chance to work with these machines, instead of against them.

To advance our own society we need to recognize the value of automation, and machines and use it to produce what we consume. As individuals we have to commit to make something or risk losing our place in civilized society. The only alternative is welfare when your job is replaced by a more capable robot. Labour (people that used to have a job) can now produce with machines as Producers. Jobs are no longer a given. But, by removing the traditional concept of "a job" we set people free to find purpose, motivation and meaning in their lives, by empowering them to make something. Now everyone can be a Producer.

The alternative is to do something in support of Producers. Supporters do the best they can do if they consume the products and use the tools Producers make. Most importantly Supporters that recognize that they are dependent on the success of Producers, and value and appreciate these people to add value to their production efforts, are the Supporters that contribute to society. If you get in the way of Producers producing, you kill the goose that lay the golden eggs. Get out of Producer's way, or risk a collapse in civil society. When people no longer have a reason to produce, they lose an innate motivator for life. When Producers cease to produce, our world will end.

Rather, I dream of a world where wealth is not defined by money, a job, or possessions, but by a person's ability to productively add value and produce for a supportive community. This should be the new way of looking at work. It is a new opportunity.

Pick your side: Producer, or Supporter. Be the best you can be, but be sure to get out of the way of the people that builds our world.

Hendrik van Wyk
Producer

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Sunday, February 14, 2016

The Problem with Jobs

Should I work for myself or for someone else?

Shall I take a job with an employer, or start my own endeavour. This is a simple decision with profound consequences in every work abled person's life. Contrary to popular belief, this has nothing to do with employment. It has everything to do with the principles by which you trade your time, skill and labor. It reflects your willingness to be employed in a job, or to take the risk and apply your resources for yourself, as self employed. Now, more than ever, people are empowered to exercise this choice. The means of production is shifting away from big capital corporations, and into the hands of everyday makers and producers.

The Concept of a Traditional Job

Jobs are born every day when private firms (driven by self employed entrepreneurs, or capital driven corporations) add workers to take care of business. No one gives you a job because you deserve one. No one gives you a job because you need one. Not because you are a good person, not because you are breathing, or are entitled. It is not a "human right". You get a job because someone needs some work done and is willing and able to pay you for it. You trade your time, skill and commitment for currency.

Employees typically cash a paycheque weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly. Entrepreneurs, and those that are self employed, don't cash a paycheques. Instead, they put up the capital for the enterprise, take responsibility for loans and other financing, pay the expenses (including payroll) and own the assets including revenue. They offer opportunities for people in need of jobs. They provide the means for your time, skills and commitment to create value.

If, over the course of months or years (or decades in the case of large-scale industrial projects such as oil drilling or computer chip manufacture), there is more revenue than expense, the employer enjoys profits, which enable them to live well and invest in another round of entrepreneurship or opportunity job creation.

Some of this profit is shared with shareholders (which can include employees). If there is less revenue than expenses, and if the losing trend is not reversed, the enterprise eventually fails, and the entrepreneur goes bankrupt and has to go begging the banks or other financiers for capital to try again, or becomes the employee of some other more successful entrepreneur. Jobs come from successful entrepreneurs and investors willing and able to risk a buck on you in order to have the potential to eventually make two bucks for themselves and for the next round of investment, which in turn has the potential to create a new job or raise for you, or enable you to become an entrepreneur yourself.

In order for all this to happen, there has to be freedom of contract (people must be able to choose the job, and employers must be able to choose employees), respect and protection of private property rights, light and reasonable taxes and regulations, and political stability with the expectation that those conditions will continue. If this contract is in some way off balance, it leads to: meaningless employment, faltering and unproductive businesses, labour unrest, capital withholding, and ultimate collapse in an economy. Simple, or is it?

History of Jobs

When early humans "went to work," they were initially hunter-gatherers. Their time was spent chasing game and finding animals and other objects they could transform into food, tools, and weapons. Over time for a variety of reasons, including changing climactic patterns and increased populations, people began to settle down. Tools were developed for planting and land cultivation, and societal structures formed that helped people to get along in larger settlements.

This is a good place for us to discuss the difference between "work" and "jobs." Many of us go to work, and that work is often a job. While humanity always worked (digging, planting, hunting, foraging, building), the concept of trading currency for time and labor, is something relatively new in our development.

Work is labor. A job is trading currency for time and labor.

Trading for labor is an ancient practice. Colonial America was a place of tradesmen and guilds. With the exception of a very few world-spanning enterprises like the East India Company, or Hudson Bay Company in Canada, there were few large employers. Most people either worked for themselves - self employed - or for local tradesmen and merchants. Alternatively, they were in the employment of the state (or military).

Before the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th century and 19th century most people worked as farmers. Only a small minority of people worked in industry. Back in colonial times and earlier, skills were passed down through apprenticeship. Guilds were created to control trade, share skills, and create barriers of entry to outsiders.

During the 19th century the factory system gradually replaced the system of people working in their own homes or in small workshops. In England the textile industry was the first to be transformed. The changes caused a great deal of suffering to poor people because the means of production was removed from the tradesperson and his tools, to that of the factory owner with the capital for machines. It largely destroyed the trades. The tasks within these corporations could be divided between the line worker (with a specific and specialized task) and management/administration. The one coopted with the tools of the trade to produce a product of value, while the other administered the means and the process.

Meanwhile in the late 20th century a change was coming over the economy, sometimes called de-industrialization. Traditional industries such as coal mining, textiles and shipbuilding declined rapidly. Service industries such as tourism, education, retail and finance grew rapidly and this sector became the main source of employment. The capital and labour for manufacturing moved to lower cost locations such as China and India, and the functions that remained were service or administrative in nature. People stopped making things. The majority of manufacturing jobs disappeared in favour of service jobs.

We are again on the cusp of another opportunity to more fully tap into our creative potential, driven by significant technological innovation that is democratizing the means of production and enabling connections between resources and markets. The arrival of the Maker Movement will emerge as the dominant source of livelihood as individuals find ways to build small businesses around their creative activity and large companies increasingly automate their operations.

Against Jobs

The biggest driver for self employment is to control your own destiny. Working a job gives someone else control over the majority of your life. Being self employed places the responsibility for your welfare into your own hands. Some people relish the opportunity, especially if they've already been a casualty of a meaningless job or a layoff.

Working a job is dangerously comfortable. When you work for someone else, life is just comfortable enough to keep you from asking the really important questions. Most jobs eliminate incentives to stand out or challenge convention. Pushing a new or alternative idea is considering threatening behaviour, and people are labelled for not being a "team player". The safe thing to do, is to do just enough. Corporations easily suffers from groupthink. Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints, by actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints, and by isolating themselves from outside influences. Sound familiar?

While you feel like your soul is being crushed every day at work by the next whiff and whim of a manager, at least you get a paycheque and some security, right? How much of that paycheque is spent on vices and entertainment just to make yourself feel better or to cover up the fundamental lack of fulfillment? How secure are you really if you can be laid off at short notice?

Fear is what keeps most people from doing extraordinary things in life. Most people choose to stay in jobs they hate because they’re scared of the alternative. They’re afraid they don’t have what it takes, that they’ll fail miserably and become a homeless embarrassments. This keeps them loyal to companies, who has no intention to return the favour. Instead, they rather put their welfare in the hands of others. The truth is, if you get past the fear and laziness, there’s no reason you can’t accomplish anything you want. Jobs keep you just comfortable enough so you never have a strong enough reason to confront those fears and start living your life’s purpose.

Working for yourself is one of the most challenging and rewarding things you will ever do. You discover things you never knew about yourself. And it’s no different when you become a business owner. You’ll never know what kind of leader you’ll be, what kind of boss you’ll be, and even what kind of morals you really have, until you’re in the thick of it. And once you are? You learn a lot about yourself and other people.

You’ll learn a lot more about life than most people. This learning is exciting. It is what we are born to do. No matter how successful you become, every single day will present a new challenge. You’ll have no choice but to figure things out. In order to do that, you’ve got to learn stuff important stuff, like how to relate to people, and how to make things happen for yourself.

Your hard work can result in wealth instead of a big, fat pink slip. When you’re working for yourself, you’re building an actual asset. Knowledge is the main asset that no one can take away from you. So is the revenue stream and momentum of the business. One that you might even be able to sell someday. When you’re working for someone else, you’re dedicating years and years and years and years (and years) of your life making someone else rich. Granted, you get paid for it, but it is not an achievement.

You’ll feel alive when you feel in control of your life and your future. There’s something to be said about the thrill of the hustle, and the love of the game. And nothing feels better than success and the the appreciation from someone else when you've added value their life.

When you are working for yourself and you’re planning to have a family, you can actually see them. You have flexibility with your work schedule, and your time is something that no amount of money could ever, ever make up for.

In Summary

We should keep in mind that the percentage of the population in the labor force peaked in the US of A, back in the year 2000, and has been falling since. The amount of those employed within the total population is at a record 38-year low of 62.6%. Meanwhile, despite slowing, GDP is still growing, so all the work is still obviously getting done somehow. 

Erik Brynjolfsson from the MIT Sloan School of Management thinks this is because not only are jobs outsourced to countries and people that can do it cheaper, but a whole lot of jobs are being taken over by technology or robots. In fact, he makes the point that we are already confronted with being a robot, or a maker/engineer that deploys and controls technology/robots. Many jobs people do can already be done better by technology. Robots are faster, cheaper, and more accurate. If you are doing a job today that can be automated, you should get ready for retirement or a new career. The robots have arrived. 

On the other side of the spectrum, makers and producers are not threatened by the arrival of new technology or robots. They rather revel in the opportunity it provides to make more, newer, better and cheaper. because they are makers, any tool that helps to make better, is embraced eagerly. We are now for the first time able to truly “race with the machine,” harnessing the power of the machine to unleash and amplify our creative energies. More broadly, we are finally making learning a true lifetime journey, finding new sources of meaning, and developing new ways to connect more richly in physical space, so that we all benefit and prosper from the new opportunities that are now available.

What does this mean? Over the past decade and a half, we’ve witnessed tremendous disruption across the economy at a speed that previously seemed impossible. It all revolved around bits. Digital was the edge, the frontier, we connected rapidly and globally through social media, and new business and institutional models evolved to fit the digital world. Now, the edge has become the core. The world is digitized. What we learned with software, web services, and apps about innovation, iteration and collaboration is being applied back to the physical – bits to atoms.

Physical “making” is the new frontier. But this time, the atoms are supported by bits, enabled and enhanced by technology that allows individuals everywhere to connect to the same resources and use the same tools.


I am adding one more possible role to the future of humanity. The role of the entertainer. There luckily remains a human quality that the world of robots have not (yet) been able to touch. Yes, a robot can make a leather bag perfectly. A craftsperson makes a custom leather bag imperfectly, but authentically, with a character that is both flawed but true and real. The same goes for the perfect notes produced by a computer, but it is the pianist that succeeds in communicating emotion and movement in her play. For myself, I can only hope to miss the day when robots become more human than people.

In the mean time, let's continue to make something. Research has shown that people who moved into optimal jobs or are self employed shows significant improvement in mental health compared to those who remain unemployed. Those people who are in poor-quality jobs shows a significant worsening in their mental health compared to those who remain unemployed.

That's right, having no job at all can be better than having a bullshit one.

If low-skill jobs are more likely to be worse on mental health than medium and high-skill jobs, then for decades we've been increasingly working in newly created jobs that are depressingly worse for us than not working in any job. Give those to the robots. Let it go.

Let's go and make something instead.

Hendrik van Wyk
Producer

Get rewarded for supporting our local Producers. Receive special offers and invitations from the Two Cowboys.
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Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Artisans' Revival

Bad News Robot

A 2014 Gallup report of worker satisfaction found that as many as 70 percent of Americans don’t feel engaged by their current job. Psychology has shown us that purpose, meaning, identity, fulfillment, creativity, autonomy are all things necessary for personal well-being. Yet, they are absent in the average job.

Imagine self-driving cars snaking through the streets, and Amazon drones dotting the sky. They are replacing millions of drivers, warehouse stockers, and retail workers. The capabilities of machines continue to expand exponentially, while our own abilities remain the same. Rows upon rows of Cloud servers are replacing armies of corporate and IT infrastructure service workers. Knowledge Workers can work everywhere, access any application, obtain any information, from any of their devices of choice, and all outside of the corporate IT service landscape.

A constellation of Internet-enabled companies matches available workers with quick jobs. Most prominently disruptions include Uber (for drivers), Seamless (for meal deliverers), Homejoy (for house cleaners), and TaskRabbit (for just about anyone else). Online markets like Craigslist and eBay have likewise made it easier for people to take on small independent projects, with access to tools, materials and instruction almost anywhere (Udemy). 

Although the on-demand economy is not yet a major part of the employment picture, the number of “temporary-help services” workers has grown by 50 percent since 2010, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Since 2000, the number of manufacturing jobs has fallen by almost 5 million, or about 30 percent in the US. Six years into the 2008 recovery, the share of recent college grads who are “underemployed” (in jobs that historically haven’t required a degree) is still higher than it was in 2007 or, for that matter, 2000. College degrees are not what they used to be.

More people are pursuing higher education, but the real wages of recent college graduates have fallen by 7.7 percent since 2000.

In 2013, Oxford University researchers forecasted that machines might be able to perform half of all U.S. jobs in the next two decades. Nine out of 10 workers today are in occupations that existed 100 years ago, and just 5 percent of the jobs generated between 1993 and 2013 came from “high tech” sectors like computing, software, and telecommunications. Guess, which jobs are taken over by machines? Yes, the 9 out of 10! If you are doing a job today that can be done by a robot, consider yourself a robot, soon to be replaced by a better model.

Is any job truly safe? What work will people do (WWPD)?

A birdseye view over the above, and the various articles circulating the web, is making it abundantly clear, for those that have not discovered it yet for themselves. The world we know is about to change. Your job is going to be a casualty, and it is happening very, very fast.

The Future of Work

What would happen if technology permanently replaced a great deal of human work, and related jobs? The widespread disappearance of jobs would usher in a social transformation unlike any we have seen.

The sanctity and preeminence of jobs lie at the heart of the country’s politics, economics, and social interactions. What might happen if jobs go away? Computer scientists and software engineers essentially invent us out of jobs, and the total number of jobs declines steadily and permanently.

In the midst of the Great Depression, the economist John Maynard Keynes forecast that technological progress might allow a 15-hour workweek, and abundant leisure, by 2030. President Lyndon B. Johnson arguing that “the cybernation revolution” would create “a separate nation of the poor, the unskilled, the jobless,” who would be unable either to find work or to afford life’s necessities.

Technology is exerting an accelerating continual downward pressure on the value and availability of jobs, on wages and on the share of prime-age workers with full-time jobs. The share of U.S. economic output that’s paid out in wages fell steadily in the 1980s, reversed some of its losses in the ’90s, and then continued falling after 2000, accelerating during the Great Recession of 2008. It now stands at its lowest level since the U.S. Government started keeping track in the mid‑20th century.

The share of prime-age Americans (25 to 54 years old) who are working in jobs has been trending down since 2000. Among men, the decline began even earlier. The share of prime-age men who are neither in jobs nor looking for a job has doubled since the late 1970s, and has increased as much throughout the recovery as it did during the Great Recession itself.

Do these people choose not to work, or is there simply not a job for them? Society’s values are bound to be rocked to its very foundation, regardless of the answer to the question.

In 1931, James Truslow Adams defined the American dream: "Life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement, regardless of social class or circumstances of birth”. Yet, in all the pursuit since 1931 a great many things have gone off the path to corrupt this vision.

We are confronted every day in the media with supposed richer and fuller lives, based on a broken and corrupt set of values:
  • Consumption Driven Economies: More stuff. You need this or that, to be happy. If only you had three bedrooms instead of two, or 6 cylinders instead of 4, then you will be truly happy. More stuff creates wealth, and is wealth.
  • Medicinal Health: More pills, patches and injections (with a few incomprehensible minor side effects) will set you up for beauty, perfection, exhilaration, great sex, social acceptance, and ever lasting youth.
  • Fabricated Equality: Ability and achievement went flying out the door in favour of equality and inclusion. Now everyone that Tweets is an expert, yet no one has expertise. The collective is considered responsible for our circumstances, which leaves no one accountable. The “I” is disappearing from our vocabulary with our liberties in toe, as “the Government” gladly fills the void “for the greater good” of all. Personal responsibility and achievement is going extinct by the minute, as society turns to the “authorities” to safeguard our welfare, secure our pensions, do our healthcare, give us our jobs, and deliver to us our newly minted “rights” in exchange for our liberty.
  • False Opportunity: Credit buys you your future, and gives you, your dreams. You can borrow to be educated, borrow to be housed, borrow to be transported, to eat, and even borrow to have children. And what credit doesn’t take from you, the government gladly finishes off through taxes for their part in securing you, your “rights”. Even Governments can borrow to delivery on their “dreams” and newly minted exorbitant electoral promises.

All this is founded on one simple assumption: There will be jobs!

With a job, you can access credit for your dreams, and your Government can tax you for securing your “rights”. Without jobs, the system falls apart. With the human robots in the jobs wheel, it will keep turning. Without the jobs wheel, what will the obsolete robots do?

The only way we as society will be able to confront the imminent arrival of the robots taking our jobs, is through a fundamental re-think of our value system. This will require a fundamental rethink of the value of work, instead of the proclaimed and false benefits of having a job.

The Artisan’s Revival

Work provides purpose, meaning, identity, fulfillment, creativity, autonomy, which are all things necessary for personal well-being. If 70% of workers miss these benefits from their jobs, then it can be fair to assume that what they do in their jobs, isn’t really work. So, who is doing this wonderful fulfilling work?

Artisans made up the original American middle class. Before industrialization swept through the U.S. economy, many people who didn’t work on farms were silversmiths, blacksmiths, or woodworkers. These Artisans were ground up by the machinery of mass production in the 20th century when they were relegated to "good jobs" instead. Lawrence Katz, a labor economist at Harvard, sees the next wave of automation returning us to an age of craftsmanship and artistry. We will be able to return to meaningful work.

The Internet and the cheap availability of artistic tools have already empowered millions of people to a production culture from their living rooms. People upload more than 400,000 hours of YouTube videos and 350 million new Facebook photos every day. The demise of the "formal" (rather former) economy could free many would-be artists, writers, and craftspeople to dedicate their time to creative interests, and to live as cultural producers, released from the shackles of the the traditional job.

Such activities offer virtues that many organizational psychologists consider central to satisfaction at work: Independence, the chance to develop mastery, and a sense of purpose. It also offers an immense contribution to communities and social value where these artisans do their work to benefit those around them through what they produce, and the knowledge they impart to learners or apprentices.

The big question henceforth will not be how we in society will be affected by the disappearance of our jobs, but it will rather be how we as society will have to adjust our values to accommodate a new world that questions the prevailing consumption driven liberalised dogma. And, will we be able to do it in time to save our world from the brink of economic collapse.

Life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement, regardless of social class or circumstances of birth. 

For this Artisan’s revival a return to a classic set of values will be required:
  • Production must drive the economy, for personal and community benefit.
  • Health should not be medicated, but achieved through informed decision and dedication.
  • Ability, achievement and personal responsibility must be recognized and liberty restored. Rights must be earned, and recognition given, to those achievers that contribute the most.
  • The fruit of a person’s labour and his or her property should be his or hers to own, and to share or exchange, with whom he or she pleases.

In the coming months, I will be seeking out these Producers that are re-inventing themselves, and who are changing their circumstances in line with this new set of values. These are the people driven by the dignity of work, of production, and of creativity. I aim to tell their stories and show the value they bring. Where they are willing, I hope to showcase their work, so that others can also learn from them, how to produce.

These are the Artisans’ that will leading the revival.

Reference Material

Derek Thompson

By Erik Brynjolfsson (@erikbryn) and Andrew McAfee (@amcafee)

Tim O’Reilly
https://medium.com/the-wtf-economy/the-wtf-economy-a3bd5f52ef00